I'll finally put fingers to keys (I did put pen to paper beforehand) on this subject which has been bugging me for a while: qualifying lower benefits you.

Ever since the change to Pirelli tyres at the beginning of the 2011 season, fresh sets of rubber have become extremely important, to the point Lewis Hamilton was proud of himself for having saved a set of tyres in Q1 in China, and credits it as the reason he won the race. Unfortunately this importance on keeping fresh sets of tyres is counter-productive at the bottom end of the grid.

At the same race in China, Mark Webber made a strategic error and didn't make it out of Q1, qualifying 18th. He then has lots of sets of unused tyres available in the race, and made an almighty late run through the field to finish 3rd. At this point some people started to question whether this was a viable strategy but most people - I believe correctly - thought it was decidedly risky. However I believe there's a caveat to that: I think the teams outside the top 3 and Mercedes need to push as high as they can; the top 3 because they're that quick, and Mercedes because their race pace hasn't been great. To back this up, let's take a rundown of the races this season.

Australia was the first race of the year and noone really knew what to expect. Nick Heidfeld qualified in 18th with Rubens Barichello in 17th. Heidfeld eventually finished 12th and Barichello retired, so not much could really be gauged from this alone. Malaysia was a similar situation: Maldonado was the 18th man but retired, and Sutil in 17th finished 11th (but there were 7 DNFs).

The aforementioned China race is when things got interesting. Webber went from 18th to 3rd, and Maldonado qualifying 17th actually finished 18th. Score one for the 18th qualifier.

The next two races were great examples of how much fresh rubber does for you. In both races a midfield driver (Kobayashi in Turkey - mechanical prob in Q1 posted no time, Heidfeld in Spain - engine fire in FP3 meant car unable to go out) finished in the points despite starting from the pit lane. As they didn't even have to set a time in Q1 - although Kobayashi did scrub a set of tyres - they had their full complement of tyres available for the race. Kobayashi finished 10th, Heidfeld 9th. The 17th man in both instances barely improved: Turkey - Algesuari 16th, Spain - Sutil 13th.

Monaco was another non-event in terms of the 18th man phenomenon. Algesuari qualified 18th but retired after a pileup that took out a few drivers. His teammate Sebastien Buemi qualified 17th and ended up 10th, benefitting greatly from the 6 DNFs resulting mainly from the crash and Sergio Perez missing the race.

Algusuari, whether because he's realised 18th is a good place to be, or through lack of one-lap pace has been the 18th man in the last 3 events at Canada, Valencia and Silverstone. At Canada and Valencia he finished 8th, and at Silverstone he managed 10th. The 17th man in each case: Canada - de la Rosa (18th), Valencia - Buemi (13th) and Silverstone - Kovalainen (retired).

It would certainly seem that the stats back up this theory: exiting qualifying in Q1 is better than reaching Q2. Is this a good thing? I don't think so. You shouldn't be rewarded for not being as quick as the cars ahead of you. As much as anything, this could result in people sandbagging in qualifying.

There are two obvious solutions to me. One would be to take away a set of tyres from all the drivers who go out in Q1. This seems somewhat harsh but could be workable. The second option would be to reward all the drivers who make it out of Q1 with an extra set of tyres. I don't know which idea would be preferrable to the teams and the tyre manufacturer but I think something has to be done. It will be interesting to keep an eye on whoever the 18th man is this afternoon and see if this theory translates to tomorrows race.

I want to make it clear I do not think that this is Pirelli's fault at all. I think what they've done has made Formula 1 far more interesting and they're doing a great job. Unfortunately, the same thing that makes the races so interesting and challenges the drivers and the teams also isn't really compatible with the idea that qualifying higher rewards a driver.